TAIPEI (Reuters) – Taiwan’s exports likely contracted in October for the second month in a row, amid fears of a global recession, uncertainties due to the war in Ukraine, and COVID-19 flare-ups in China, according to a Reuters poll.
Taiwan, a global hub for chip production and a key supplier to Apple Inc, is one of Asia’s leading exporters of technology goods. The trade data is seen as an important gauge of world demand for tech gadgets.
Exports last month were estimated to have dropped 6% from a year earlier, a Reuters poll of 22 analysts showed on Monday, slightly faster than the 5.3% contraction in September.
The export forecasts varied widely between an expansion of 2.14% and a contraction of 13.4%, reflecting uncertainties over the global economy, supply chain disruptions due to pandemic lockdowns and power shortages in China, as well as the fallout from Russia’s invasion of the Ukraine.
Taiwan’s finance ministry had predicted October exports could contract in a range of 3% to 6% from a year earlier.
Separately, the consumer price index was expected to have risen 2.7% in October from a year earlier, a slower rate than 2.75% in September, according to the poll.
The trade and inflation data will both be released on Tuesday.
(Poll compiled by Anant Chandak and Carol Lee; Reporting by Ben Blanchard; Editing by Ana Nicolaci da Costa)